ERCOT Storage Performance | 3 Months Post RTC+B

Three months in, after December, January, and February, the Real-Time Co-Optimization plus Batteries (RTC+B) energy storage operations picture is more clear. The revenue opportunity was real, but only operators with the right tools – forecasting, optimization, and disciplined execution – captured it. Winter Storm Fern in late January drove most of the 3 month’s revenue, and the data underneath shows just how much the right setup mattered.

The first three months of RTC+B revealed a massive revenue gap among ERCOT storage operators. The top earner made $22.71/kW, 4.5x the median. That spread is the signature of a market where nodal dynamics and strategy compound — the top earners sat on higher-priced nodes than the rest of the fleet and executed on the prices those nodes delivered.

• Highest earning asset made $22.71/kW, while the top 50 revenue generators averaged $9.78/kW
• Median asset brought in $4.87/kW, with the fleet average higher at $5.25/kW
• Real-Time (RT) Energy made up the majority of the stack at 54%, with Day-Ahead Ancillary Services (DA AS) next at 30%

Take Winter Storm Fern days out of the 3 months and the picture changes fast. Fleet average revenue drops 36%. The top earner drops 48%.

The top earner still outperforms the median by 4x in both scenarios. Well-executed operating strategy and nodal pricing drove that advantage, with Fern amplifying the spread. 

Revenue tells you what an operator earned. DA TBx capture rate tells you how well they earned it – normalized across the different nodal pricing conditions and durations each operator faced.

By that measure, the top performer captured 2x the fleet median. The revenue divergence shows up here too, just less dramatically. Since capture rate normalizes for node and duration, what separates the top from the middle is a well-executed operating strategy. 

• Top performing asset captured 122% of its DA TBx opportunity, and the top 50 averaged 88%
• Average and median asset captured 51%

Across the full three months, the opportunity was nearly split between Day-Ahead and Real-Time – averaging $11.75 DA TBx and $11.15 RT TBx.

Strip Winter Storm Fern out:

• Average DA TBx opportunity drops 36%, falling to $6.15/kW
• RT TBx falls less, to $9.63/kW
• Average DA TBx capture rate ticks up slightly, reflecting the fleet executed marginally better outside the storm

Two things stand out. First, Fern was a Day-Ahead-heavy event. Pull those three days out and the bulk of the remaining opportunity lived in Real-Time, not Day-Ahead. Second, even with capture rates ticking up post-Fern, average DA TBx capture sat at just 54%. 

With or without Winter Storm Fern, the fleet left roughly half the Day-Ahead opportunity on the table. Three months in, that’s a clear signal that RTC+B is still a market being figured out.

The pattern holds at every duration. RT Energy carries a large stack across every duration, and the longer the asset, the bigger the RT Energy share gets. 

Breakdown by asset duration:

• Short duration assets (≤1.24 hours) anchored in DA AS, with the top 10 leaning even more heavily there. Limited discharge capacity makes AS commitment the natural fit.
• Mid-duration assets (1.25–1.74 hours) pulled DA Energy meaningfully into the stack. The top 10 leaned even further into DA Energy, carrying a more balanced approach across products.
• Long duration assets (>1.75 hours) went majority RT Energy. For the top 10, RT Energy shrank, and DA Energy revenue made up the difference.

Revenue wasn’t evenly distributed – fewer than 10 days carried most of the 3 month’s earnings.

• Winter Storm Fern (January 25-31): The top 6 revenue-generating days all clustered in this window, with the storm days and days leading out of the storm also pulling outsized revenue. See the full Winter Storm Fern recap.
• December 14: The next-biggest single day, outside of Fern. See the December 2025 recap.

The leaderboard was set by operators who consistently showed up ready with forecasts that called the price volatility correctly, DA commitments positioned to capture the premium when prices spiked, and an optimization approach agile enough to re-route as conditions shifted.

*Top earners defined as highest $/kW
**Top performers defined as highest percent of DA TBx captured